Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.