A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
